Nationally:
Ed Goeas GW-Battleground Vote Projection (51.2 Bush, 47.8 Kerry and 0.5 Nader) and Pew Research (51 Bush-48 Kerry-1 Nader) got it exactly right.
Battleground states:
Mason-Dixon got 15 out of 16 (Minnesota: Bush by one point was the failed call)--calling four states dead on, and the difference between their calls and actual votes was 1.8.
Rasmussen just missed Iowa, but missed the point margins by more than three points in NJ and AZ.
Okay, so next time you know who to watch.
Now how about who to avoid? Who got it worse?
Nationally:
Marist College called Kerry by one (50-49), Lake, Snell, Perry and Associates (Battleground/Lake) called Kerry by two (51-49) and Fox News/Opinion Dynamics called Kerry by two (48-46).
Battleground states:
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics. Called Florida for Kerry by five points.
Strategic Vision: a bit too Republican (called Bush win in MI and tie in NJ and consistently underestimated support for Kerry.
CNN/USA Today/Gallup: Missed FL, OH, PA and WI by large margins.
Next time out, you can probably bypass these folks.
Posted by Clifton at November 8, 2004 03:58 PM | TrackBack